中国城镇化与服务业发展耦合协调度测度

Coordination between the development of China's urbanization and service industry

从投入产出角度构建了城镇化与服务业发展的耦合指标体系,运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法实证研究了1981-2013年间中国城镇化与服务业发展的互动效应和协调状况。结果发现:从总体效应看,城镇化与服务业发展呈现出良好的耦合协调关系;从具体效应看,城镇化对服务业发展规模具有显著的促进作用,但其对服务业结构升级和效益提升的推动作用仍有较大改善空间;服务业发展对人口城镇化和社会城镇化的促进作用比较显著,但对经济城镇化的支撑作用趋于弱化,对空间城镇化的推动作用也相当有限。

From the inputoutput perspective, this es- say constructs a coupling index system of urbanization and the development of service industry, and then empirically studies the interactive effect and coordination status between them in China from 1981 to 2013 using DEA method. The results show as fol- lows： The overall effect between urbanization and the develop- ment of service industry appears good coupling coordination. As to the specific effects, urbanization promotes the scale develop- ment of services industry significantly, but facilitates the struc- ture upgrading and benefit improvement of service industry limit- edly. The development of service industry almost promotes the population urbanization and social urbanization significantly, but supports more and more weakly the economic urbanization, and makes a quite limited promotion on space urbanization.