摘要
为定量评估化工区域风险,结合信息扩散法和网格划分技术,利用MATLAB编写个人风险计算程序。基于以往类似事故统计数据,通过信息扩散法确定某化工区域火灾爆炸事故发生频率,得到事故频率与指标论域之间的拟合函数;利用网格划分技术计算各重大危险源发生火灾爆炸事故引起的个人风险网格叠加矩阵。结果表明:该化工区域内个人风险最大值为2.57×10-3,事故叠加效应造成个人风险最大值增加了1个数量级;根据个人风险标准,当化工区域个人风险值大于1×10-3时为不可容许风险水平,必须采取有效措施。
In order to conduct the quantitative risk assessment of chemical area, combining with information diffusion method and meshing technology, MATLAB was used to establish program to calculate individual risk. According to historical similar acci- dent statistics, we utilized information diffusion method to de- termine the frequency of fire and explosion accidents in a chemi- cal area, and got the fitting function of accident frequency ver- sus index theory domain. Then we used meshing technology to calculate the individual risk grid superposition matrix caused by fire and explosion accidents occurred in various major hazards area. The results showed that the maximum of individual risk in the chemical area is 2.57×10^-3 , and the superimposed effect of accidents increased individual risk by 10 times. In accordance with the individual risk standard, it is unacceptable when the individual risk value in the chemical area is greater than 1 ×10^-3 , and requires effective measures.
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第12期1675-1678,共4页
Fire Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51276024)
江苏省科技支撑计划项目(BE2012644)
