人口老龄化下税制结构选择的动态一般均衡分析

A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Tax Structure Selecting in the context of Aging Population

从税收产生之日起,人们就没有停止过对理想税收制度的探索。我国现行税制体系是在1994年全面税制改革的基础上确立的。此后,为适应经济社会的变化,我国又推行了一系列的税制改革。然而在我国人口老龄化进程加快、人口老龄化对经济增长的不利影响日益显现的新形势下,如何减少人口快速老龄化所带来的不利影响,又对未来税制改革提出了新的要求。本文应用OLG模型,借鉴已有研究成果及联合国人口预测数据,构建了包含消费税、资本收入益税、劳动收入税的动态可计算一般均衡模型,并模拟了不同税基选择下的经济增长路径。模拟结果表明,适当增加对消费的征税可以减少人口老龄化带来的不利影响。

Since the birth of tax,people have kept on exploring a ideal tax system. China＇s current tax system structure was established in 1994 based on the 1994＇s general tax reform. Since then, in order to adapt to the eco- nomic and social changes, China has carried out a series of reforms in tax system. However,in the context of China rapid aging population process and the progressively negative economic impact of aging population, how to reform the future tax structure to reduce the impact of aging population raises new requirement for future tax reform. Using the OLG model,via referencing existing research results and UN~ data of word population prospect, this paper con- structs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model including consumption tax, capital income tax and labor in- come tax and simulates the economic growth path based on various. The simulation results show that the appropriate increase of the consumption tax can reduce the adverse effects of aging population.