气候变化对中国重要产粮区农民生计影响——以河南省为例

Impact of Climate Change on Farmers' Livelihood in China's Important Grain-producing Area——Taking Henan Province as an Example

气候变化将会引起温度和降水等气候因子发生变化,同时也会使得极端气候事件发生的强度和频率增加。因此,气候变化必然会对农民的生计问题造成一定的影响,尤其对重要产粮区农民的生计影响更大。以河南省为例,首先运用小波分析对河南省1955—2012年的降水和气温两个气候因子进行趋势分析。结果表明:近58年间平均降水量和平均气温呈现出不断波动的状态;进入21世纪后,平均降水量在波动中不断减少,平均气温在波动中不断升高。之后,基于生计框架分析发现,气候变化对河南省农民生计资本的5个方面均会产生负面影响。因此,农民和政府应该积极面对这一现象,采取可持续的发展战略和有效措施来应对气候变化所产生的各种不利影响。

Climate change can cause the change of climate factors such as temperature and precipitation, andit also increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Therefore, climate change has certainimpact on farmers’ livelihood, especially the famers in important grain- producing area. The authors tookHenan Province as an example, analyzed the tendency of rainfall and temperature from 1955 to 2012 by themethod of wavelet analysis. The results showed that the average precipitation and temperature showed fluctuanttrends in the nearly 58 years. After entering the 21 stcentury, the average precipitation reduced and the averagetemperature increased in fluctuations. The results of analysis based on livelihood frame showed that climate change caused negative impact on farmers’ livelihood capital in five aspects. Therefore, farmers andgovernment should face this phenomenon actively, take sustainable development strategy and effectivemeasures to cope with the adverse effects of climate change.