基于威布尔生存分布和高斯模型的品种权寿命预测研究——以杂交水稻品种为例

Prediction Method Study on the Remaining Useful Life of Plant New Varieties Rights

针对新品种权经济分析时剩余有效寿命难以确定的问题,采用威布尔生存分析方法和高斯模型研究如何精确估算品种权剩余有效寿命的问题。结果表明:水稻授权品种的平均寿命为10.013年,随着品种权年龄的增加,相同剩余寿命Tt达到x的概率越来越小,可靠度越来越低,品种权失效的概率就越大;某一具体水稻授权品种的剩余有效寿命与其达到最大推广面积时的示范推广年龄和替代品种的出现密切相关,当授权品种达到最大推广面积的示范推广年龄时,一旦新的替代品种的出现会使其推广面积速度下降,相应其剩余有效寿命便会缩短。因此,利用威布尔生存分析方法和高斯模型既能描述品种权剩余有效寿命的时间趋势,而且还能确定具体品种权的剩余有效寿命,明确品种权整个生存期,使植物新品种权的经济分析工作更加精确和合理。

For the problem that the remaining useful life of plant new variety right is difficult to determinewhen economic analysis is conducted, this paper uses the Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gauss Modelto study how to accurately estimate the remaining useful life of plant new variety right. The results showed thatthe average life of the rice granted varieties was 10.013 years, and with the increase of the age of plant varietyrights, the probability that the same residual life Tt reached x was more and more small, the reliability was moreand more low, the greater was the probability of the invalid variety right; the remaining useful life of a specificrice granted variety was closely related to the demonstration promotion age which the rice granted varietyreached its maximum area, when the rice granted variety achieved the demonstration promotion age of themaximum area, the emergence of alternative varieties would make its promotion area decrease, accordingly itsremaining useful life would be shortened. Therefore, using Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gauss Modelcould describe the remaining useful life’s time trend, but also determine the remaining useful life of a concreteplant variety right, and clarify the entire life time of varieties rights, and make the economic analysis of plantnew varieties rights more accurate and reasonable.