TPP协定对中越经贸合作的影响与思考

Thought, Impact of TPP on the Economic and Trade Cooperation between China and Vietnam

越南加入WTO以及中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立,使中越两国合作日益密切,商品贸易、相互投资和对外经济合作领域都得到了极大的发展。越南加入TPP会产生贸易替代效应和转移效应,也会对中越经贸合作造成影响。协定内容中所涉及的零关税、原产地规则等各种标准高且复杂,短期内不会对中越商品贸易结构产生太大影响,但长期来看,国际直接投资流向将发生变化,国内投资者也会考虑进行产业转移以绕开贸易壁垒,中国在越南的工程承包项目等还会面临巨大挑战。从企业层面到国际层面展开积极行动以应对可能发生的国际贸易新秩序,是现阶段应作的思考和准备。

Vietnam＇ s accession to the WTO and the establishment of CAFTA, make the cooperation between the two countries increasingly close. Commodity trade, mutual investment and foreign economic cooperation got great devel- opment. Vietnam＇ s joining the TPP will bring trade substitution effect and the transfer effect, will affect in the econom- ic and trade cooperation as well. The content of the agreement include the zero tariffs, rules of origin of with high stan- dard, which will not, in the short term, make much of differences in commodity trade structure. But in the long term, in- ternational direct investment flows will change and domestic investors may consider a shift in industry to circumvent trade barriers. China＇s engineering contracting projects in Vietnam will also face huge challenges. Save for a rainy day, from the enterprise level to international level, positive action to deal with the possibility of new order of international trade should be taken at the present stage for preparation.