中国对日本农产品贸易关系的持续时间分析

An Analysis on the Duration of China's Agricultural Products Exporting to Japan

本文采用CEPII-BACI数据库1995—2010年中国出口到日本HS6分位农产品的贸易数据,利用生存分析方法探讨中国对日本农产品出口贸易的持续时间。研究发现:(1)中国对日本农产品出口持续时间普遍较短,中位生存时间为2年,60.52%的持续时间段在2年内消失;(2)输日农产品贸易关系的风险函数存在明显的负时间依存性;(3)不同贸易初始量和不同种类的农产品在贸易关系的持续时间上存在显著差异。因此,盲目促进农产品对日出口却忽视出口持续时间的贸易政策是有缺陷的。稳健性检验表明,农产品产品分类的不同层次对结果的影响不显著。最后,以此为基础提出了相关的政策建议。

After 30 years of reform and opening-up, China gains great profit in participating in economic globalization process. The open model of economic development has become an important part of China＇s experience. Also, open economy is a dynamic process according to the continuous development policy based on the evolution of the practice. Based on the analyzing of the traditional characteristics of China＇s open economy, the article points out that the series of difficulties and challenges our country faced under the new world economic normality, such as the development of global value chains, the rising labor costs, the imperfect socialist market economy and the unbalanced regional development, and the stagnation of multilateral trade negotiations. Thus, China shall develop the new open economy pertinently, focus on promoting reform with wider open, changing traditional competitive advantages, paying attention to the imports and trade interests, forming a new pattern of open and pluralistic, and then try to improve China＇s opening up institutional arrangements, optimize the trade policies which adjusting with the new normal economic development and then build a pluralistic balanced opening pattern.