高新区与科技新城互动发展的逻辑斯蒂模型研究

On the Interactive Development from Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone to Hi-tech New Town Based on the Logistic Growth Model

单阶段的逻辑斯蒂模型显示了高新区系统的周期性发展规律,多阶段的逻辑斯蒂模型揭示了高新区系统向科技新城系统演进的基本路径;在此基础上,对高新区与科技新城互动发展的逻辑斯蒂模型做一般性回归分析,分析了不同阶段二者的相互关系,以此划分了高新区与科技新城互动过程中存在促进阶段、竞争阶段和更替阶段,分析了三个阶段二者的作用方式;最后针对三个阶段周期性特点,提出相应的促进高新区系统演进的策略。

Single stage logistic growth model shows the periodic development law of high-tech industrial development zone system,and multi-phase logistic growth model reveals the basic path from high-tech industrial development zone to high-tech new town. The paper makes further general regression analysis on the logistic growth model,points out the different mutual relationship between the two stages,and divides the three stages that exist in the process of their interactive stage,that are the promoting stage,the competition stage and the evolution stage. At last,the measures to promote the evolution of the high-tech industrial development zone are put forward according to the periodic characteristics.