我国乳品进口大幅增长的原因及其影响

China's Dairy Imports Growth: Reason and Impact

由于资源禀赋差异,我国乳品的净进口格局很难改变,在乳品进口快速增长的过程中,国内乳品产业格局与消费状况都在发生着深刻变化。面对这一问题,本文从国内乳品需求构成入手,指出在生产调整与需求调整脱节、收入水平的快速增长及流通方式转变是导致供需失衡的三点原因,并在此基础上分析了乳品进口的影响。总体而言,乳品进口的积极效应较为显著,但是也不能据此忽视对散养农户的相关冲击。实际上,包括乳品在内的中国农产品市场是一个快速变化的市场,面临的现实问题往往会被放大,但是最终在新的市场均衡下必定实现相对稳定,因此不必过分悲观。

Due to the resource endowment differences, the net import of China＇s dairy products is hard to change. In the process of rapid growth in the dairy imports, profound structure changes emerged in the domestic dairy industry and consumption situation. Based on the problem, this paper discussed the domestic dairy demand, pointed out that dairy market imbalance reason including： the production adjustment velocity, income, consumption mode, then analyzed the impact of dairy imports. Overall, effects of dairy imports was obviously positive, but smallholder farmers＇ welfare was never ignored. In fact, including dairy products, China＇s agricultural market developed so fast, the real problem tended to enlarge, eventually in the new market equilibrium, dairy price mechanism would achieve stabilization, anything would not be pessimistic.