我国特大城市的功能布局与人口疏解研究——以北京为例

China＇s Demographic Estimation Using the Generalized Stable Population Model

特大城市功能准确定位被认为是破解＂城市病＂的一项良策。以北京为例,从城市功能结构入手,在分析其城市功能及结构演变的基础上,探究特大城市功能布局在疏解人口规模过程中存在的问题及可行性,为促进城市可持续发展、缓解城市病提供相应的对策建议。研究结果表明,十年间北京政治功能较为稳定,经济功能明显增强,文化科技功能有所减弱。北京各区县实际发展不符合城市内部主体功能规划、政府投入偏差等原因加重了城市功能调控人口规模难度,因此,应该促使城市发展与其功能定位相符,减少核心功能区在经济功能方面的绝对优势地位,尊重市场机制对人口配置的决定性作用,这样才有利于缓解特大城市的＂城市病＂,达到疏解中心城区人口的目标。

An integrated demographic estimation approach based on the generalized stable population mod- el using census age distributions is used in this paper to reconstruct Chinese fertility and mortality in the three inter-censual periods over 1982-2010. Results show- that fertility and mortality in China have de- creased dramatically, the 1990-2000 fertility was far below replacement, while the 2000~2010 fertility was slightly over 1.5. Comparing the estimates with those published by China＇ s National Bureau of Statistics, our estimates of birth rate and number of births are only slightly higher for 1982~1990 and 2000~2010 in- ter-censual periods, but are markedly lower for the 1990~2000 period than the NBS estimates. Our esti- mates of life expectancy are largely the same as the NBS estimates across the three inter-censual periods. Since this integrated approach produces estimates fairly insensitive to data errors like differential complete- nessof censuses, estimates presented in this research are likely more accurate than estimates from many of the other more restrictive procedures.