2013~2020年江苏省碳排放驱动因素趋势预测

Prediction in Driving Factors' Trend of Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province during 2013-2020

根据江苏省历年经济统计数据及能源消费数据进行灰色GM（1,1）预测和多项式组合预测,并对预测数据进行LMDI分解分析.结果表明： （1） 2013～2020年江苏省碳排放量仍会持续增加;（2）人口、产业结构和能源强度的变动都会带动碳排放增长;（3）经济增长仍是未来碳排放量不断增加的主要推动因素,而能源效率提升将在很大程度上减缓未来碳排放增长趋势;（4）产业结构对未来碳排放增长的抑制作用逐渐增强,而能源消费结构对未来碳排放增长的抑制作用逐渐削弱,甚至消失.最后,指出未来江苏省的减排重点是降低第二产业碳排放、提高能源利用效率,同时兼顾第三产业的碳排放等建议,为江苏省及其他类似省份制定减排政策提供决策参考.

According to the economy and energy consumption statistics in Jiangsu province, we used forecast model GM （1, 1） and polynomial combination to forecast first, then took LMDI decomposition analysis on the prediction data. The results showed that： （1） carbon emissions will continue to increase in Jiangsu province during 2013-2020; （2） the change of population, industrial structure and energy intensity will have positive influence on the growth of carbon emissions; （3） economic growth is still the main reason for carbon emissions＇ growth in the future, while energy efficiency is the main inhibiting factors of carbon emissions＇ growth; （4） the inhibiting effect of industrial structure on future carbon emissions will be enhanced gradually, while the inhibiting effect of energy consumption structure on future carbon emissions will be weakened gradually, and even disappeared. Finally, we provided some advice on decision-making for Jiangsu and other provinces. Such as the key to reduce emissions in Jiangsu province is to reduce emissions in the second industry and improve the efficiency of energy utilization. Also the carbon emissions of the tertiary industry should be taking into consideration.