城市低碳交通的发展途径分析

Research on Development Path for Urban Low-Carbon Transportation

交通运输部门作为城市能源消耗和碳排放的主要部门,是低碳城市建设的关键所在,伴随着城镇化进程加速,人口的集中和城市规模的不断扩张,能耗和碳排放压力将会继续增加,对于城市低碳交通的探索,成为应对气候变化的重点内容。以河南省济源市作为案例城市,基于碳排放清单核算指南提供的计算方法,以城市交通运输部门的能耗和碳排放作为研究对象,系统分析了城市交通运输部门的发展现状,计算在典型年份的能耗和碳排放状况,并以2011年为研究的基准年,采用情景分析方法,对交通运输部门能耗和碳排放的可能发展趋势进行分析预测,结果表明:交通运输部门的能耗和碳排放总量呈增长的趋势,基准情景下总量增长最大,增速也最快,低碳情景次之,强化低碳情景下的能耗和碳排放最小;碳排放增长的最重要原因在于城市客运、货运水平的增加对于能源需求的增长,减少能耗降低排放的关键点在于单位能耗的降低、能源结构的改善以及公共交通系统的发展。

As the main sector of urban energy consumption and carbon emissions, the urban transportation is the key factor to the construction of low carbon city. Meanwhile, the energy consumption and carbon emissions in urban transportation sector will continue to increase because the accelerated urbanization process, the concentration of population and the expanding urban scale. For this reason, exploring the urban low-carbon transportation development is becoming the focus of coping with the climate change issue. This paper takes the transport sector of Jiyuan City, Henan Province as a study case, based on the calculation method of carbon emissions inventory accounting guidelines, and analyzes the current development of the city＇s energy consumption and carbon emissions in transportation department. Then using the scenario analysis method, this paper analyzes and forecasts the energy consumption and carbon emissions in transportation sector with the study reference year as 20ll. The results are as follows： the energy consumption and carbon emissions in transport sector are in a growing trend, and the maximum value is in BaU （Business as Usual） scenario and the minimum one in ELC （Enhanced Low Carbon） scenario; the key reasons for carbon emissions growth increased the energy demand, and the key point to reduce it is to improve the energy consumption structure＇ and the development of public traffic system.