中国地区“四化”协调发展的空间相关性及其影响因素的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation and Its Influence Factors of China's Regional Coordinated Development of Four Modernizations

针对中国地区"四化"协调发展水平展开空间统计与空间计量分析。空间自相关检验表明,历年全局Moran’s I指数均显著为正,且集中在0.4左右的高位,空间正相关明显。空间面板分析表明,空间自回归系数ρ显著为正,"四化"协调发展存在正向空间溢出。经济发展水平、经济开放程度、固定资产投资、科技、教育、卫生事业发展和节能减排等都对"四化"协调发展起到了显著的正向促进作用,金融贷款的负向影响明显,而财政支出能力、交通基础设施和社会保障水平的影响则不够明显。东、中、西部的情况各有异同。文章就此提出了相关意见建议。

This paper analyzes China＇s regional coordinated development level of four modernizations by spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. Spatial autocorrelation tests indicate that each global Moran＇s I index is significantly positive and is concentrated around 0.4. The analysis of the spatial panel data model shows that the spatial autoregressive coefficient p is significantly positive. And it means that the coordinated development of the four modernizations has positive spatial spillover. Economic development level, economic openness degree, fixed-asset investment, education input, technological innovation, public health, energy saving and emission reduction all have significantly positive promoting effect, but financial loan has significantly negative effect. And fiscal expenditure capability, traffic infrastructure and social security level are non-significant. The analysis of eastern, central and western China shows that the influence factors of three regions have both generality and distinction. Based on these analyses, the paper puts forward relevant advice and measures.