基于增量视角的城镇化演进与能耗间库兹涅茨曲线探析——以安徽省为例

An Analysis on Incremental-based Kuznets Curve between Urbanization Evolution and Energy Consumption:a Case Study of Anhui Province

推进城镇化与实现节能减排为中国未来社会两大战略任务,从理论上探索城镇化能耗的库兹涅茨曲线拐点,对制定节能城镇化政策与能源利用规划具有重要启示意义。以安徽省为例,采用完全分解模型,对城镇化引起的能耗进行了测算;基于增量视角,借助环境库兹涅茨曲线分析工具,通过引入城镇化变量二次、三次项,采用最小二乘回归分析方法,分别考察了城镇化与其能耗间U形与N形曲线关系;依据高数中曲线求导方法,测算了城镇化能耗拐点出现时的城镇化水平,结果表明:1)1996-2013年,城镇化进程引起的累计能耗达4 755.78万tce,年均279.75万tce,城镇化每提高1个百分点,推动能源净消费181.59万tce,两者间呈同向演化态势;2)二次曲线验证表明,城镇化能耗曲线呈U形,拐点位置出现在城镇化水平增幅为1.642 3×10-13时刻,现阶段,城镇化能耗位于U形曲线右半侧;3)三次曲线回归结果未能验证出城镇化能耗有拐点存在,两者间呈同向增长态势,表明安徽省推进城镇化与实现节能减排矛盾日渐突出,生态文明建设将面临较大挑战。基于研究结果,从调整优化产业结构、提高能源利用技术等方面提出了减少城镇化能耗的政策建议。

Promoting urbanization and implementing energy saving-carbon emission reduction are two strategic tasks for China in the future. To theoretically explore the inflection point of Kuznets curve for urbanization-caused energy consumption is of important en lightenment for the development of urbanization policy and energy saving plan. Taking Anhui province as example, a fully decomposed model is used to calculate urbanization-caused energy consumption. Based on incremental perspective, the analysis tool of environmental Kuznets curve is applied to introduce quadratic and cubic terms of urbanization variable, and a minimum squares regres sion analysis method is adopted to investigate the relationship of U-shaped and N-shaped curves between urbanization and energy consumption. According to the curve derivation method in advanced mathematics, the urbanization level at the inflection point of ur banization-caused energy consumption is estimated. The results are shown in the followings. 1） In 1996 2013, the accumulated energy consumption caused by urbanization reached 47. 557 8 million tee with annual average of 2. 797 5 million tce. The increase of urbanization by 1 percentage point will cause 1. 815 9 million tce of net energy consumption, and both show the synthetic evolution. 2） The quadratic curve verification reveals that urbanization energy consumption curve is shown as U-shaped with inflection point at the urbanization increase of 1. 642 3×10^-13. At this stage, urbanization-caused energy consumption is located in the right side of the U-shaped curve. 3） The cubic curve regression results fail to verify the existence of the inflection point of urbanization-caused energy consumption. Both show the synthetic increase trend, indicating that the contradiction between promoting urbanization and imple- menting energy saving-carbon emission reduction is increasingly prominent in Anhui Province, and ecological civilization construction will face greater challenges. Based on findings, the policy recommendations are proposed to reduce urbanization-caused energy consumption from the aspects of adjusting and optimizing industrial structure as well as improving energy use technology.