中国—东盟热带水果贸易强度及潜力分析

Research on Trade Intensity and Potentiality of Tropical Fruits Trade between China and ASEAN

基于贸易强度视角分析CAFTA框架下中国—东盟热带水果贸易效应,运用ARIMA模型与引力模型检验了中国—东盟热带水果贸易潜力及出口影响因素。结果表明,"早期收获计划"使东盟成为中国热带水果最大的进口来源地与出口市场,区域内热带水果贸易互补性较强。CAFTA的建立能在短期内促进双方热带水果贸易流量增加,但长期作用不明显,自贸区外贸易转移效应短期内亦不突出。经济规模、人口数量、双边直线距离等因素对中国与东盟热带水果出口贸易流量有显著影响,未来区域内热带水果贸易潜力巨大。

From the perspective of trade intensity this paper analyses trade effect of tropical fruits be- tween China and ASEAN within the framework of CAFTA, and measures the tropical fruits trade potential and export influence factors by means of the ARIMA model and gravity model. The results show that ＂Early Harvest Plan＂ makes ASEAN to become the largest tropical fruits import and export market of China. Tropical fruits trade between China and ASEAN are highly complementary. The establishment of CAFI＇A can promote tropical fruits trade flows between China and ASEAN in the short term but long - term effect is not obvious. Trade diversion effect in the short term is also not prominent. The main factors influencing tropical fruits trade between China and ASEAN are GDP, population and space distance. Tropical fruits trade between China and ASEAN have huge potential in the future.