绍兴人口流动的空间分布以及演变趋势研究

The Research on the Spatial Distribution and the Evolution Trend of Population Migration in Shaoxing

本文通过分析绍兴人口空间分布特征及其形成原因,在此基础上对人口流动的演变趋势进行预测分析,研究表明:绍兴市人口密度中长期将呈现缓慢增长趋势,且流动人口的增长速率高于户籍人口的增长速率,特别是越城区、柯桥区成为流动人口的主要聚集地。同时,结合影响人口空间分布的主要因素,认为加强协调区域经济发展、优化公共资源配置、增强城市服务功能等措施,有利于科学调控人口规模和结构,促进人口与经济协调发展。

The spatial distribution of Shaoxing population characteristics and its causes are analyzed in this paper, and the evolution trends of population migration are forecasted, the research show that long-term population density of Shaoxing city will show a slow growth trend, and the growth rate of the floating population is higher than that of household population. Especially, Yuecheng district and Keqiao district become the major migrants gathering. Meanwhile, we analyze the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of the population and consider the measures such as strengthening coordinated regional economic development, optimizing the allocation of public resources, and enhancing city services conducive to scientifically control population size and structure, promote the coordinated development of population and economy.