气候变化引起我国温度破纪录事件的不一致演变

Climate Change Cause the Inconsistent Evolution of the High and Low Record-breaking Event of Temperature in China

分析我国576个观测站1961~2013年月平均温度的高值纪录和低值纪录,结果表明,全球变化引起温度破纪录事件的高值纪录和低值纪录演变不一致,近53年来全国高温热浪的频次增加,但单次低温冷害的程度加剧,且有明显的季节和区域特征。高值纪录的年频次与低值纪录的年频次的比值在1990年后超过2∶1,并持续增长,近10年来甚至增加了一个数量级;高值纪录多出现于冬季,低值纪录多发生于夏季和初冬。虽然总体来说高值纪录频次占优,但低值纪录的变化强度却更大。除5和9月,其他各月份全国均有超过45%的站点低值纪录变化强度大于高值纪录的变化强度。大多数情况下,纪录数据的频次和变幅的变化趋势并不一致。

The maximum records and minimum records of monthly average temperature in 576 stations from 1961 to 2013 in China were analyzed. The result shows that,in the context of global warming,the frequency of heat waves increased,but the extent of a single cold damage increased,and there are significant seasonal and regional characteristics. Specifically,the observations of the ratio of record highs to record lows each year are more than 2∶ 1 after 1990,which keeps on growing,and have increased an order of magnitude in the last decade. The record highs occurred in the northwest,the north,the northeast,and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area,mostly in winter,meanwhile,the record lows occurred in south of the Yangtze river,South China,the Huanghe River and Huai River,and the Yangtze River and Huai River,mostly in summer and early winter. Although the record highs are higher in frequency,the extent in intensity of the record lows is more noticeable. Except for May and September,there are more than 45% stations have greater changes in intensity of record lows than that of record highs. In most cases,the trends in frequency and in intensity of the record event are not consistent.