国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险测度研究

Research on Risk Measurement of Resource Conflicts in International Hydropower Project Group

针对当前国际水电工程项目群施工资源易发生冲突的情形,提出了基于云模型的资源冲突风险测度方法。明确了国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险的概念,建立了包括人力资源、机械设备、材料、财务、组织协作和现场条件6个一级风险因子及20个二级风险因子的资源冲突风险因子体系;采用云模型和德尔菲法确定每个风险因子对应的权重云,并运用逆向云发生器和正态云拟合运算规则求得定性因子的综合云。用建立的模型对国际某水电工程项目群的资源冲突风险进行测度,结果表明该项目群的资源冲突风险状态为良好。由构建的国际水电工程项目群资源冲突风险测度模型能较好地获得了资源冲突风险的测度值,为我国水电企业更好地进行国际工程项目群风险管理提供了参考价值。

In light of resources conflicts in international hydropower project group in the present,we presented a method for measuring risk of resource conflicts based on cloud model. The concept of risk of resource conflicts in international hydropower project group was defined,and a system of risk factors for resource conflicts was established,with 6 first-class factors（ human resource,machinery and equipment,material,finance,organization cooperation,and site conditions） in association with 20 second-class ones. Then,the cloud model and Delphi method were used to determine the weight cloud of each risk factor,and the reverse cloud generator and the algorithm rules of normal cloud fitting were adopted to calculate the comprehensive cloud of each qualitative risk factor. One international hydropower project group was taken as an example,and risk measurement of resource conflicts for the group was conducted by using the model. The results show that risk condition of resource conflicts for the project group is under control. The model for measuring risk can be used to obtain values of risk of resource conflicts,and it can be referenced for Chinese hydraulic corporations to solve resources conflicts in international hydropower project group.