拥挤收费实施效果的系统动力学分析

An Analysis of the Effects of Congestion Pricing Using a System Dynamics Approach

为了准确描述城市交通系统的运行现状,建立了城市交通系统各要素因果关系,明确了交通拥挤产生的原因以及拥挤收费的作用机制。考虑交通与经济、人口、环境等因素的相互关系,引入机动车限购政策的影响,构建了拥挤收费实施效果分析的系统动力学模型。以交通指数、路网平均速度、NOx排放情况为研究对象,从交通和环境两方面综合考察政策实施效果。以北京市道路交通运行现状为背景,对2015～2020年北京市道路交通运行状况及交通环境进行预测;结果显示,仅以缓解拥堵为目标,拥挤收费价格为16元/车次时效果较好,更高的定价可能导致道路资源浪费;而综合考虑缓堵和减少排放时,收费11元/车次,即拥挤收费价格略低于出行者平均每次出行时间价值时,能够兼顾交通和环境的改善。

In order to accurately describe the operation states of urban transport systems,the relationships between various elements of urban transport systems are analyzed.The reasons leading to traffic congestion and the impact of congestion pricing are thoroughly described.Considering the interactions between economy,population and environment in conjunction with the impact of the policy of car purchasing restriction,a system dynamics model is developed and used to study the effects of congestion pricing.Effects of the congestion pricing are investigated in the following two aspects：traffic and environment impact with a focus on traffic performance index,average speed,and NOxemissions.The predicted results of traffic conditions and environment impact in Beijing between 2015～2020show that it would have the best effect when the congestion pricing is 16 Yuan per vehicle with a main target of alleviating traffic congestion;higher than 16 Yuan per vehicle will result in the waste of road resources.Otherwise,if taking both traffic and environment impact into consideration,when congestion pricing is set to 11 Yuan per vehicle,which is slightly lower than the average value of travel time,it cannot only alleviate traffic congestion,but also reduce emissions.