人民币国际化与能源价格互动关系研究

Interaction Relationship between RMB Internationalization and Energy Prices

目前人民币国际化已被广泛关注,国际大宗商品贸易、特别是能源贸易中计价货币绑定成为货币走向世界的新道路,因此研究人民币国际化与能源价格的关系对于进一步推动人民币国际化有着重要意义.本文选用渣打银行人民币环球指数来度量人民币国际化进程,利用协整、格兰杰因果和脉冲响应三种方法对人民币国际化与国内外石油及煤炭价格的互动关系进行了研究.实证结果表明:人民币国际化与能源价格之间存在长期均衡关系,且短期内能源价格变动对于人民币国际化变动都有着正向的影响.并且,石油价格以及国内煤炭价格是人民币国际化的格兰杰原因,而人民币国际化指数仅仅是国际煤炭价格的格兰杰原因;最后,通过脉冲响应分析,发现能源价格变动对人民币国际化进程有积极推动作用.

RMB internationalization has been widely concerned.Currency bounding in international commodity trade,especially in energy trade becomes a new way to be internationalized.Therefore studying the relationship between energy prices and the RMB internationalization is very important to further promote the internationalization of RMB.We took the Standard Chartered Bank global index as the RMB internationalization index,and used methods including cointegration,granger causality and impulse response analysis to discuss the interaction relationship between RMB internationalization and energy prices.Empirical results show that there is long-run equilibrium relationship between RMB internationalization and energy prices,and the change of short-term energy price has a positive impact on RMB internationalization index.Secondly,oil prices and domestic coal prices are the granger cause of RMB internationalization,while the RMB internationalization is only the granger cause of international coal price.Finally,the impulse response analysis shows that changes of energy price play positive roles in promoting the internationalization of RMB.