海洋立管风险因素敏感性分析

Sensitivity analysis of risk factors of marine riser

分析海洋立管运行的众多风险因素,建立海洋立管风险因素层次结构模型,采用改进的模糊层次分析法得出风险因素权重定量结果,分析海洋立管风险因素的敏感性强弱,识别出影响海洋立管运行的主要因素,其中第三方破坏权重最大,在立管风险增加或减少方面起的作用最大,对立管正常运行影响最大敏感性最强.

Many risk factors of marine riser operation are analyzed,a hierarchical structure model is set up for the risk factors,and the weight of every risk factor is quantitatively evaluated by using improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process（AHP）.The sensitivity magnitude of the riser risk factors is analyzed and the main factors affecting the marine riser operation are identified;among them,the weight of third party damage is found to be the maximum,it will play the most significant role in increasing or decreasing the riser risk and have maximal influence on normal operation of riser and its sensitivity will be the strongest.