地市级尺度的中国人口老龄化时空演变分析

Temporal-spatial Difference of Population Aging in China at City-level

以老龄化指数为研究指标,采用探索性空间数据分析和变异函数研究方法,对我国339个地级市（包括直辖市）2000年、2010年老龄化程度及2000~2010年老龄化变化情况进行时空演化及空间分异特征研究。研究结果表明：1）我国老龄化及其变化幅度总体上表现出很高的空间集聚性,但集聚状态有减弱趋势;2）我国地市级老龄化局部差异扩大;3）我国地市级老龄化格局演变不稳定,空间自组织性减弱,引起人口老龄化空间差异的内部随机性减小,老龄化空间变异强度以及结构化分异增强。

Based on the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis and variogram,the thesis examines the spatial- temporal evolution and disparity characteristics of population aging in China at city- level from 2000 to 2010 with the index of population aging. The conclusions are as follows： 1） The city- level population aging distribution of China shows a strong overall spatial autocorrelation with a diffused temporal trend; 2） Local spatial differences of population aging have increased; 3） The overall evolution pattern of population aging is unstable,the influence of random factors has decreased while the variation intensity and structural difference has increased.