城市轨道交通对常规公交客流量的影响——以南昌地铁1号线为例

The Influence of Urban Rail Transit to Bus Transit——Take Subway Line 1 in Nanchang for Example

阐述了南昌市经济、人口、道路交通情况,着重分析了城市轨道交通对常规公交客流量的影响因素,对传统的效用函数进行了改进,放大了时间以及票价对选择的影响。在此基础上建立了两种分担比例的数学模型,并通过一定的调查数据标定了模型参数,预测出南昌地铁1号线在不同的票价模式下对北京路地面公交客流量分担的比例。并据此对南昌市地铁运营提出了相关建议。

This paper introduces the condition of economy, population and traffic of Nanchang city, pays attention to emphasis of influencing factors of bus passenger flow of Beijing Road imposed by the Nanchang Metro line 1. The paper also develops the traditional utility function and enlarges the effects of choices imposed by time and ticket price. On the basis of the analysis mentioned above,the mathematical mode of two-share ratios built,and the model parameters can be calibrated through some investigation data. The model can predict the share ratio of Nanchang Metro line 1 in terms of the bus passenger flow of Beijing Road on the condition of different modes of ticket price. Some suggestions are proposed to Nanchang subway Line 1 operation.