福建省金融发展与居民消费的实证研究

Empirical Study on Financial Development and Consumption in Fujian Province

选取1985-2013年数据,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和向量误差修正模型对福建省金融发展与居民消费进行实证研究。结果表明:在长期,金融发展与居民消费之间存在正相关关系,其中金融发展每提高1%,将引起福建省居民消费率提高0.133%;此外,人均收入增长将会促进居民的消费支出,通货膨胀、城市化都将抑制居民的消费支出。格兰杰因果检验结果表明金融发展、通货膨胀和城市化是居民的消费率的单向格兰杰原因,人均收入增长与居民消费支出存在双向的格兰杰因果关系。

We, selecting the data of 1985~2013 and applying for the cointegration test, the Granger causality test and vector error correction model, make an empirical research on the relationship between financial development and the consumption of residents in Fujian province. The results show that： there is a positive correlation between the financial development and the residents＇ consumption in the long term. That is, every 1% increasing in the financial development will lead the residents＇ consumption rate to rise by 0.133% in Fujian. In addition, per capita income growth will promote the consumption, but the inflation and urbanization will inhibit the consumption. Furthermore, the Granger causality test results show that financial development, inflation and urbanization is one-way Granger cause of the residents＇ consumption rate and that there is two-way Granger causality between per capita income growth and consumer spending.