产业结构调整与经济增长关系——以福建省为例

The relationship between industrial structure and economic growth based on the equilibrium conditions of industry ——An Empirical Analysis with the example of Fujian Province

文章通过推导得出产业结构均衡的条件,是各产业产出比重等于就业人口比重。据此分析了福建省的产业结构偏离均衡的状况,得出福建省产业结构调整方向是重点发展第三产业。在此基础上,笔者结合协整理论并构建VEC模型进行实证分析,结果显示产业结构与经济增长存在长期均衡关系,产业均衡条件下产业结构的调整有利于经济增长,第三产业产出占比每增加1%,经济增长0.1581%,第三产业就业人口占比每提高1%,经济增长0.1105%。这有助于福建省产业结构与经济增长未来大致走势的预测。

This paper deduction the conditions of balanced industrial structure, which is the proportion of industrial output is equal to the employment. Then analyzes the present situation of industrial development in Fujian Province, realize developing the third industry is Fujian industrial structure adjustment direction. On this basis, the author through the cointegration theory and VEC model, the empirical analysis shows, the industrial structure and economic growth in long-run equilibrium relationship, the adjustment of industrial structure is conducive to economic growth. The output of the third industry accounted for each increase of 1%, economic growth of 0.1581%, the third industry employment to population ratio for every 1% increase in economic growth, 0.1105%.