中央银行规避经济收缩和通胀偏好的模式与途径研究

Patterns and Ways of Recession Avoidance Preferences and Inflation Avoidance Preferences in Central Bank

考虑到中央银行可能存在规避价格通胀偏好和规避经济收缩偏好,本文针对利率对通胀缺口和产出缺口的调整特征与中央银行的非对称偏好特征之间的相依性进行了理论分析。在此基础上,通过对我国货币政策规则进行线性检验,构建双曲正切平滑迁移回归模型对非线性货币政策规则进行了参数估计,结果发现我国货币政策规则存在明显的非线性,利率反应函数是关于通胀缺口和产出缺口的凹函数。进一步地,本文还对中央银行的非对称偏好进行了识别,结果发现我国中央银行存在规避经济收缩偏好。

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between the adjustment mechanism of nominal interest to inflation gap （output gap） and the asymmetric preference of central bank, taking into account the recession avoidance preferences and inflation avoidance preferences of central bank. On this basis, we test the linearity of monetary policy rule, and then we estimate the smooth transition regression model of monetary policy rule, which transition function is hyperbolic tangent function. We find that the monetary policy rule is obvious nonlinear and interest rate reaction function is a concave function of the inflation gap and the output gap. On this basis, we test the type of central bank＇s asymmetric preferences and find recession avoidance preferences exists when central hank implements monetary policies.