经济增长进程中金融结构的边际效应演化分析

Evolving Marginal Effects of Financial Structure on Economic Growth

本文基于金融内生视角,运用新古典经济增长模型,研究最优金融结构形成与经济增长的内在机制及最优金融结构的动态特征(演化轨迹、偏离及恢复)。在此基础上,构建了考察金融结构与经济增长关系的分析框架,并采用1996-2012年间中国的省际面板数据,利用面板分位数技术检验经济增长进程中金融结构的边际效应。研究表明,伴随着资本形成,存在最优的金融结构与实体经济相匹配,且在不同经济发展阶段最优金融结构是动态演化的。同时,最优金融结构内生决定于其要素禀赋结构,而非单纯取决于经济发展阶段,即不存在"银行主导型"和"市场主导型"金融体系孰优孰劣之说。最后,以股市交易总额与金融机构贷款总额的占比作为金融结构的测度指标,实证结果显示,金融结构的边际效应显著为正,且在不同经济发展阶段呈现"阶梯"式的倒"U"型动态演化趋势。

From the perspective of financial endogeneity, a revised neoclassical economic growth model is used to study the internal mechanism between the formation of optimal financial structure and economic growth, especially the evolutionary trajectory, deviation and recovery of optimal financial structure. Furthermore, we propose an analytical framework for investigating the relationship between financial structure and economic growth. Using the provincial panel data from 1996 to 2012 in China, we examine the evolving marginal effects of financial structure. With the formation of capital, there exists the evolving optimal financial structure that matches the different development of the real economy, and the optimal financial structure of one country is determined by the structure of factor endowments rather than simply depends on the stage of economic growth. Finally, using the ratio of stock value traded to financial institutions loans as the proxy of financial structure, the empirical results of panel quantile regression show that the marginal effect of financial structure is significantly positive, and it presents a dynamic evolution with the ＂ladder＂ inverted ＂U＂ type in the process of economic growth.