信息通信技术对中国经济增长的替代效应与渗透效应

The Substitution and Pervasiveness Effects of ICT on China's Economic Growth

信息通信技术(ICT)对经济增长的影响可分为替代效应和渗透效应。前者是由技术进步带来ICT产品价格下降,从而实现ICT资本对其他资本的替代,支撑经济增长;后者则是ICT作为通用目的技术能渗透和应用于各产业部门,提高其全要素生产率(TFP),进而间接促进经济增长。本文依托Jorgenson及OECD的增长核算框架,对1977-2012年期间中国经济增长的来源进行细致分解,据以分析ICT的两种效应。实证结果表明:(1)ICT的替代效应体现为ICT资本对增长的贡献率,平均仅为3.4%,但1990年以后呈非常明显的上升趋势,2010-2012年期间更是高达9.8%,接近同期TFP的贡献;(2)在ICT资本和TFP增长测算基础上进行的格兰杰因果检验印证了渗透效应的存在。经济新常态下,充分发掘ICT的替代效应和渗透效应,有望为转变发展方式、保持中高速增长提供新的动力源泉。

The information and communication technology （ICT） has both a substitution effect and pervasiveness effect on economic growth. The technological progress brings the continuous price fall of ICT products, which in turn results in the substitution of ICT capital for non-ICT capital. Meanwhile, as a general purpose technology （GPT）, ICT has the character of pervasiveness, and are applied in almost all the other sectors, which would bring the improvement of TFP and economic growth. Within the framework of growth accounting formed by Jorgensen and OECD, the economic growth of China during the period 1977--2012 is divided into different sources. The substitution and pervasiveness effects of ICT are further analyzed based on the measurement results. It is indicated that ： （ 1 ） the contribution of ICT capital can be attributed as the substitution effect of ICT, which is only 3.4% on average. However, the contribution is significantly improved since 1990, and reaches a level of 9.83% during 2010--2012, almost that of TFP. （2） the pervasiveness effect of ICT would is confirmed with Granger Causality Test. China is entering a state of ＂ New Normal＂. To keep a moderate high growth rate while transforming the economic growth pattern, we should get rid of the dependence on investment. And ICT would be an important support for China＇s future growth.