量化宽松政策、财富效应与企业出口

Quantitative Easing,Wealth Effect and Export

本文拓展了量化宽松政策的封闭凯恩斯模型,首次运用开放宏观经济框架揭示了量化宽松政策对出口贸易的跨国财富效应,提出发达国家量化宽松政策对发展中国家的企业出口行为差异化影响的理论模型与假说。同时,本文基于中国海关的企业-产品级别微观数据,使用倍差法,以2001-2006年的日本量化宽松政策为案例,检验了量化宽松政策对我国企业出口行为的影响。结果发现:和理论的预期相吻合,发达国家的量化宽松政策使我国企业对外出口量显著增加,特别是提高了外资企业的出口能力;该政策使我国外商投资出口企业对量化宽松政策实施国的出口市场占比上升,表明该政策冲击的国际资本流动增加压力大于汇率升值压力。本文通过最近邻匹配法建立实验组和对照组样本,有效地验证了不同所有制企业对量化宽松政策出口行为存在显著差异,与本文模型假说及推论一致。文章认为,我国应警惕发达国家量化宽松政策实施和退出时带来的我国出口总量的波动,同时从汇率和国际资本流动两方面熨平波动带来的负面影响。

We developed the Keynesian model of closed economy for quantitative easing policy, and reveal the cross-border wealth effect on export from quantitative easing through an open macro-economy perspective for the first time. Based on theoretical analysis, we initiate a theoretical model and hypothesis on exporters＇ heterogeneity in developing countries under the political shock of quantitative easing in developed countries. Meanwhile, we use the detailed firm-product data from Chinese customs and apply difference in difference method to test the behavior of exporters in China under the background of Japanese quantitative easing during 2001--2006. Our results show that, in line with the findings from our theoretical model, quantitative easing in developed countries stimulates the export volume of Chinese firms, especially for foreign invested ones. Meanwhile, quantitative easing increases the export ratio of Chinese foreign invested firms to the developed countries with such policy, which indicates the shock of increasing international capital flow is larger than the shock from exchange rate appreciation. By using PSM to establish the test group and control group, we effectively test the heterogeneity of exporting behavior responds among different types of ownership under the shock of quantitative easing, and derive results in accordance with our theoretical analysis. It＇s better for our government to be alert about the fluctuation of export ,~olume brought by the implementation and tapering of quantitative easing policies in developed countries, and smooth the negative effect from the aspects of exchange rate and international capital flow.