生猪养殖成本与收益评估及趋势预测

Cost and Revenue Assessment of Swine Industry and Trend Prediction

本文利用相关统计数据和国家生猪产业技术体系综合试验站数据,对我国2015年生猪养殖的成本、收益和盈利情况进行了评估,并对2016年成本和收益的变动趋势进行了预测。通过分析发现,2015年我国生猪饲料成本有所下降,生猪养殖综合成本比较平稳,生猪价格总体明显上升,养殖业在5月份以后开始盈利,预计2016年养殖成本总体仍保持平稳,生猪价格比2015年有一定幅度的上升,养殖业仍会有一定盈利。

In this paper, we assessed the cost, revenue, and profit of swine industry in 2015 and predicted the cost and revenue trends in 2016, through the relevant statistical data and the data of experiment stations of National Swine Industry Technical System. Through the analysis we found that in 2015 the cost of pig feed has declined, the overall cost of pig breeding is relatively stable, the overall price of pig prices rise significantly, and the industry began to profit after May, and we predict that in 2016 the cost of swine industry is still relatively stable, pig prices will be higher than it in 2015, the pig farm will have a certain profit.