轨道交通客流预测估算方法的研究

Research on the Forecast Methods of Rail Transit Passenger Flow

研究目的:在轨道交通项目前期研究中,特别是轨道交通线网编制过程中,对线网的结构、走向进行确定时要以客流规模作为主要依据之一。但传统的客流预测工作量较大,建模及计算过程复杂、耗时,难以适应项目推进的要求。本文以交通调查为基础,探讨估算轨道交通总量和最大断面流量的方法,可在短时间内得出客流结果,以此作为城市轨道交通前期研究过程中把握规模的重要参考。研究结论:(1)轨道交通客流预测可以居民出行OD调查资料为基础进行估算;(2)依据出行链及功能区划分的原则可推算线路客流总量及最大断面客流量;(3)经对天津地铁1号线客流总量及最大断面客流量的模拟计算,结果误差较小,该方法具有一定的可信度;(4)该方法可应用于线网规划中对线网规模及线路客运量水平的估算,有利于加强线网布设的数据化,提高规划的可信度。

Research purposes： In the previous study of rail transit project, especially during the rail transit network plan, passenger flow is the key basis for determining the network structure and corridors alignment. However, for the traditional forecast method, the workload is huge, the model setup and calculation are complicated, and the time required is long, so it is difficult to push the project forward. This paper discussed how to estimate the total passenger flow and section passenger flow quickly based on the traffic survey, which can take the result in short time as an important reference for the rail transit project. Research conclusions： （ 1 ） Rail transit passenger flow forecast can be based on the residents ＂ travel OD survey. （2） According to the trip chain analysis and the functional zone, the total passenger flow and maximum section passenger flow are estimated. （3） Comparing the calculation passenger flow by the method and the exact passenger flow of Tianjin Metro Line 1, there is a very small difference, so the method discussed in this paper is credible. （4）It can be used for the rail transit passenger volume forecast and network scale estimated during the network plan, and it helps to enhance the digitization and credibility of the plan work.