北方草原牧户心理载畜率与草畜平衡生态管理途径

herders' desirable stocking rates and methods for implementing a sustainable grass-animal balance in the rangeland regions of northern China

探讨牧户心理载畜率与草畜平衡生态管理的途径对于草原有效减畜、遏止草原退化、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。从生态学和社会科学相结合的角度,采用问卷调查、情景实验及综合分析等多种方法,探讨了北方草原牧户心理载畜率的存在、计算和影响因素,以及牧户生产决策行为特征和可能的生态管理途径。研究发现,在草甸草原、典型草原和荒漠草原,牧户行为属"有限理性",是有限理性的"生态经济人",风险规避是其基本特征,牧户生产决策表现出禀赋效应、损失厌恶、框架效应等;牧户草场所属草原类型和牲畜存栏数显著影响牧户对草场超载的认知和判断,在不同草原类型区,户主文化水平、性别、民族和是否嘎查干部等亦显著影响牧户对超载的认知和判断;需采取基于进化博弈的分步式、合作式及示范引导式的适应性减畜的生态管理途径,以实现牧户心理载畜率向生态优化载畜率的转移,实现优化牧户生产方式、减少牲畜数量、治理草原退化、北方牧区生态和牧民经济双赢的目标。

Coordinating the methods of managing herders＇ desirable stocking rates and ecosystem management can help promote sustainable development in the rangeland areas of northern China by reducing the number of livestock and rehabilitating the grassland degradation. Questionnaires, scenario experiments, and comprehensive analyses were used to explore the perception, theoretical model, and impact factors of herders＇ desirable stocking rates, the grass-animal balance, and potential eco-management methods. The results showed that the herders and their grass-animal balance decisions behavior were characterized by bounded rationality, and that risk aversion was the most basic feature of herders＇ decisions behavior. Their decisions behavior were also characterized by the endowment effect, loss aversion, and framing effects. Transportation, access to information, level of education for the head of household, gender, and ethnicity significantly influenced herders＇ decisions about overstocking. Step-by-step, cooperative, and guided eco-management methods, based on evolutionary game theory, are needed to coordinate desirable stocking rates with ecological stocking rates.