中国经济的生产能力、实际购买力及其差额分解

Production Capacity,Real Purchasing Power and Decomposition of the Discrepancy Between them in China

本文基于国际比较的GK法多边比较框架,采用T?rnqvist物量指数,对中国2000—2011年经购买力平价因子调整后的生产法实际GDP和支出法实际GDP进行了全新核算。研究发现:支出法实际GDP高于生产法实际GDP,这说明在我国经济生产能力即定条件下进出口贸易活动可以改进我国居民的实际生活水平;我国经济存在"增产不增收"现象,近年来生产法实际GDP的年均增速高出支出法实际GDP年均增速约0.2个百分点,这导致生产法实际GDP和支出法实际GDP的差额持续下降;从指数分解结果来看,造成这一现象的主要原因在于实际汇率的下降(即人民币的升值)。

Based on the framework of the Geary-Khamis （GK） method, a multilateral method on international comparison, this paper uses Toernqvist quantity index to recalculate the real GDP of China adjusted by purchasing power parity（PPP） in terms of both the production approach and the expenditure approach from 2000 to 2011. The research findings show that real GDP on the expenditure-side is higher than that of production-side, which indicates that under certain production capability of China＇ s economy, import and export trade can improve the actual living standard of household. There is a phenomenon that China＇s economy increases in production but not in revenue. Recently the annual growth rate of real GDP on the production-side is around 0. 2% higher than that of expenditure-side, which is diminishing the discrepancy between them. Judging from the index decomposition, the main reason for this phenomenon is the depreciation of real exchange rate, that is, the appreciation of RMB.