我国央行货币政策实施力度和节奏的规律及效果研究——基于历史演进和时变分析的视角

Research on Monetary Policy Implementation Rules and Effects of China's Central Bank:Based on Dynamic Analysis of Time-varying Perspective

本文在对我国中央银行30年来运用数量型和价格型货币政策工具的力度与节奏进行描述性统计分析的同时,引入时变参数模型对这两类货币政策调控效果的演进趋势和时变特征进行了实证检验。本研究得出以下结论:(1)我国央行对于数量型工具的使用较为慎重,但经济面临较大冲击时往往会高频度、高强度地使用该手段;近期对数量型工具的使用呈现出调整节奏加快、单次调整力度降低的趋势。相比之下,我国央行对价格型工具运用的节奏要"均匀"得多。(2)当经济出现"滞涨"时,我国央行更看重经济增长放缓可能引发的影响,多采用扩张性、但是较"温和"的价格型操作方式。(3)从时变性和演进性角度来看,数量型货币政策对产出的调控效应有所提高,对价格水平的调控效应总体保持稳定。(4)价格型货币政策在复苏期对于产出的作用效力更高,在下行期的作用时滞更短,对价格水平实施调控的效果呈现出时滞期缩短且稳定性提高的趋势。

Using statistical approach and TVP-VAR model,this paper analyzes the PBC＇s implementation of quantitative and price-based monetary policy tools and their macroeconomic effects of China nearly 30 years.The results indicate that：（ 1） The PBC holds a prudent attitude by using quantitative tools,which is operated with high-frequency and high-strength when encountering strong shocks. The mode of quantitative instruments has a tendency that the control rhythm is quickened and the each control intensity is reduced. The implementation rhythm of price-based tools is comparatively balanced.（ 2） It is more important for China＇s central bank to deal with the recession in stagflation economy,where the expansionary price-based policy is often used for its relatively moderate feature.（ 3） From the time-varying and the evolutionary perspectives,the macroeconomic effects of quantitative monetary policy on the output are improved,and the effects on the inflation maintain stable.（ 4） As for price-based policy,its advantage of efforts is obvious on the output in the recovery period,the advantage of time lags on output lie in down economy,while the effects on inflation are making great improvement.