计划生育政策、城镇化与经济增长

Family Planning Policy,Urbanization and Growth

本文在一个存在城乡结构的内生增长模型中引入了生育决策中数量和质量的替代关系,分析了计划生育政策的经济影响。当劳动密集型产业比重较大时,提高乡村计划生育率有利于资本与技能协调发展,从而促进经济增长。当资本密集型产业与劳动密集型产业技术差异较小时,提高城镇计划生育率有利于资本积累和经济增长。数值模拟结果表明,从长期看,我国以前的计划生育虽然能够带来较高的劳动力结构和城镇化水平,但是并不利于经济增长。

The paper examines the effect of planned fertility rate on population and economic growth in an endogenous growth model in which agents face the quantity- quality trade- off when choosing fertility rate. If the output share of the labor- intensive industry is large,increasing rural planned fertility rate may make skill more suitable for the capital deepening,and thus promotes growth. If the productivity differential between the capital- intensive and the labor- intensive industry is low,increasing urban planned fertility rate may promote capital deepening and economic growth. The simulation results show that China＇s planned fertility rate most likely depresses economic growth in the long run,although it may induce higher share of skilled labor in the labor force and higher urbanization rate.