个人所得税改革可以刺激居民消费吗?——来自2011年所得税改革的证据

Can Personal Income Tax Reform Stimulate Household Consumption?

本文研究2011年个人所得税改革对居民消费的刺激效应。基于北京大学中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)微观面板数据,文章考察比较了工薪收入和个体户经营收入个税变动对居民消费行为的影响。研究发现,减税政策对于提升工薪阶层消费效果非常显著,个税下降100元,居民消费将上升138元;由于流动性约束、预防性储蓄和短视行为等因素的影响,个税改革对不同类型家庭消费的刺激效果存在明显的异质性;同时,税收下降对个体户消费行为影响较小且不显著。本文的政策含义在于,税赋过高直接抑制了居民消费,降低个人所得税、提高居民收入比重是刺激居民消费的有效手段。

This paper studies the stimulating effect of personal income tax reform in 2011 on household consumption. Based on the dataset of China Family Panel Studies（ CFPS）,we find significant discrepancies of stimulating effect between tax on wage and tax on self- employed operating income. Specifically,for tax on wage every 100 Yuan tax cut boosts 138 Yuan of household consumption on average,but for tax on self- employed operating income the stimulating effect is both small and insignificant. Since spending patterns,financial constraints,precautionary savings and myopia exist,the effect of stimulation on different types of household indicates apparent heterogeneity. Our results show that heavy tax burden directly suppresses household consumption,and reducing personal income tax and increasing the share of household income is an efficacious method to stimulate consumption.