通货膨胀预期与企业银行债务融资

Inflation Expectations and Corporate Bank Debt Financing

本文采用2003-2013年沪深两市A股上市公司的季度数据,研究通货膨胀预期如何影响企业银行债务融资。研究结果表明:第一,预期通货膨胀率降低实际利率,因此预期通货膨胀率与银行债务水平正相关,说明预期通货膨胀率是资本结构的重要决定因素。第二,当预期未来将发生通货膨胀时,商业银行"惜贷",信贷歧视更为明显,因此国有企业更容易获得借款。所以在国有企业中,通货膨胀预期与银行债务水平的正相关关系更为显著。第三,通货膨胀预期对企业银行债务偏离具有显著影响,表现为保守型企业优化债务结构,而激进型企业偏离程度更大。进一步研究发现,预期通货膨胀率与企业银行债务融资的调整额正相关,并且在国有企业更为显著;如果企业更容易获得银行借款,通货膨胀预期对银行债务融资的影响更显著。本研究丰富了资本结构决定因素的文献和宏观经济政策与微观企业行为的文献,拓展了资本结构宏观影响因素的研究,有助于政府和企业更好地应对通货膨胀。

Based on the bank- dominated financial institutional environment in China,this paper uses the quarterly data from A- share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchange to investigate how inflation expectations affect corporate bank debt financing. The results are： First,inflation expectations decrease actual interest rate,therefore,expected inflation is positively related with the level of corporate bank debt,implying that inflation expectations are important determinants of capital structure. Second,when expected inflation is high,Credit reluctance and bank discrimination are more severe among commercial banks. As a result,SOEs can borrow money more easily from banks. Thus,in SOEs,the positive relationship between expected inflation and bank debt level is more significant. Third,inflation expectations also affect firms＇ deviation from optimal bank debt structure. Specifically,conservative firms optimize debt structure while aggressive firms deviate more from optimal debt structure. In further analysis,we find that the expected inflation is also positively related with the change of bank debt; if the company borrow money more easily from banks,inflation expectation has greater effect on these firms＇ bank debt financing. This study enriches the literature of capital structure determinants and macro policy and micro activities,investigates the macro determinants of capital structure,and helps the government and firms cope with inflation better.