基于油价冲击分解的国际油价波动对中国工业行业的影响:1998—201

The Effect of International Oil Price Fluctuation Based on Disentangling Shocks on Chinese Industries:1998-2015

本文基于短期约束的SVAR模型,考察了1998—2015年导致国际油价波动的三种结构性冲击对中国37个工业行业的影响及其机理。结果发现:①供给冲击、特定需求冲击和金融投机冲击带来的油价上涨会抑制工业产出。行业的能源密集度越高,或者国有企业产量占行业产量比重越高,这种抑制效应越小。②总需求冲击带来的油价上涨会扩张工业产出,国内需求冲击对产出的扩张作用高于国外需求冲击,新兴经济体需求冲击的产出扩张效应高于发达经济体需求冲击。由于中国与发达经济体在产业和外贸方面互补性较强,而与新兴经济体竞争性更强,行业的出口依存度越高,其受国外需求冲击和发达经济体需求冲击的正向影响也越大,但受国内需求冲击和新兴经济体需求冲击的影响却越小。③油价的特定需求冲击对工业行业的抑制效应远高于供给冲击和需求冲击。为有效应对油价波动带来的负面效应,中国需要转变经济增长方式,完善成品油价格形成机制,构建原油期货市场和能源金融体系。

Based on SVAR model, the paper analyzes the effect of three structural shocks that lead to international oil price fluctuation on Chinese industries from 1998 to 2015. The results indicate that the negative oil supply shocks, positive oil-specific-demand shocks and the speculating shocks reduce Chinese industrial production. The industries with higher energy-intensity or with higher ratio of state-owned enterprise production are less negatively affected than lower ones. The rise of oil price caused by aggregate demand shocks increase output. The domestic demand shocks have more positive influences on industries than foreign demand shocks. The emerging- economy demand shocks are much more important than developed-economy demand shocks concerning their output expansion effect. Because China is highly complementary to the developed economies, and is more competitive with the emerging economies in terms of production and foreign trade. The higher the exporting dependence, the greater the positive influence of foreign demand shocks and developed-economy demand shocks on Chinese industrial production. The oil-specific-demand shocks reduce Chinese industrial production more greatly than other shocks. To cope with the negative effects of oil price fluctuations effectively, China needs to change the pattern of economic growth, improve the pricing mechanism of refined oil product and build the crude oil futures＇ market and the financial energy system.