产业结构调整与生产率提升的经济增长效应——基于中国城市动态空间面板模型的分析

Economic Growth Effects of Industrial Restructuring and Productivity Improvement——Analysis of Dynamic Spatial Panel Model with Chinese City Data

本文基于一个两部门经济增长模型,利用2003-2012年中国285个地级及以上城市的统计数据,运用动态空间面板模型对产业结构调整和生产率提升的经济增长效应进行了实证检验。研究结论显示,空间溢出效应是考察产业结构调整与生产率提升影响经济增长的重要因素。从整体层面看,中国城市经济增长动力已由产业结构调整转换为全要素生产率提升,并且产业结构"服务化"倾向的高级化调整是导致中国经济发展进入"结构性减速"阶段的重要原因。同时,产业结构调整和生产率提升的经济增长效应受到经济发展阶段和城市人口规模的约束:工业化阶段的地区经济增长更多地依赖于全要素生产率的增长,而城市化阶段的地区经济增长则可以从产业结构的合理化调整中获得较为明显的"结构红利";中等规模及以上城市的经济增长动力逐渐转换为全要素生产率的增长,而中小城市的经济发展需谨慎地推进产业结构高级化调整,以避免破坏具有"结构性增速"特征的工业化结构。全要素生产率提升不仅是未来中国经济增长的主要动力,也是化解产业结构调整对经济增长负向影响的主要途径。

This paper constructs a two-sector economic growth model for testing the economic growth effects of industrial restructuring and TFP improvement with dynamic spatial panel model through the statistics of Chinese 285 cities level data from 2003 to 2012. The study concluded that space spillover effect is an important factor to investigate the adjustment of industrial structure and productivity gains impact on economic growth. From the overall perspective, the economic growth momentum in China＇s cities has been converted to TFP increase from industrial restructuring, and the ＂service＂ tendency of industrial structure adjustment is an important reason of China＇s economic development entered a ＂structural reduction＂ phase. There are obvious constraints by the stage of economic development and urban population size in the economic growth effects of industrial restructuring and productivity improvement. Economic growth in the stage of industrialization is increasingly dependent on growth of total factor productivity and economic growth of urbanization stage can still get a more obvious ＂structural bonus＂ by rationalization of industrial structure adjustment. More than a medium-sized city＇s economic growth momentum is gradually converted to TFP growth, while the economic development of small and medium cities need to promote the industrial structure adjustment carefully to avoid damage to industrial structure ＂structural growth＂ features. TFP is not only the main driving force for China＇s future economic growth, but also is the main way to resolve the industrial structure adjustment and other factors to affect negative impact on economic growth.