中国人群辐射致肝癌危险系数估算研究

Estimation of the risk coefficients of radiogenic liver cancer in the Chinese population

目的估算中国人群性别-受照年龄-患癌年龄别辐射致肝癌危险系数。方法采用中国人群肝癌性别-年龄组别基线发病率,估算中国人群肝癌性别-年龄别发病率。应用人群间危险转移方法,以日本原子弹爆炸幸存者终生寿命研究(LSS)辐射致肝癌危险模型数据为基础,采用辐射致肝癌危险转移模型(选用相乘相加混合转移模型,算数尺度下,相乘和相加模型的权重分别为0.7和0.3),估算中国人群性别-受照年龄-患癌年龄别辐射致肝癌危险系数。结果通过估算可获得中国人群性别-受照年龄-患癌年龄别辐射致肝癌危险系数;其呈现受照年龄越小,患癌年龄越小,则该危险系数越大的特征。以30岁受照,60岁患癌为例,中国男性和女性人群性别-受照年龄-患癌年龄别辐射致肝癌危险系数分别为0.29/Sv和0.32/Sv。结论通过估算获得的中国人群辐射致肝癌危险系数与日本原子弹爆炸幸存者LSS人群的有差异,但两者随性别-年龄变化趋势相同。

Objective To estimate the risk coefficient of liver cancer due to ionizing radiation in relation to sex,age of exposure and age of disease in the Chinese population. Methods The sex- or age-related morbidity of liver cancer in the Chinese population was estimated by the base line morbidity. Estimation of sex-or age-related risk coefficients of liver cancer was carried out based on the danger model data from the Life Span Study（ LSS） of Japanese atomic bomb survivors.A method of risk transfer between populations was used to conduct multiplicative and additive mixing models with a weight of 0. 7 and 0. 3 respectively on an arithmetic scale. Results Chinese radiogenic liver cancer sex- or age-related specific risk coefficients could be estimated. The cancer risk increased with the decreased age of exposure and decreased age of disease. For example,if the exposure age is 30 years and cancer occurred age is 60 years,the risk coefficients of liver cancer for Chinese population is 0. 29 / Sv for male and 0. 32 / Sv for female. Conclusion The estimated risk coefficients of liver cancer due to ionizing radiation are different between Chinese population and LSS population of Japanese atomic bomb survivors. However,the tendency related to sex or age of exposure is similar.