中国人口结构与产业结构耦合分析

The Coupling Between Population Structure and Industrial Structure of China

通过构建人口结构与产业结构评价指标,运用灰色关联模型和耦合度模型,对我国人口结构与产业结构耦合度进行了测算,发现1990—2012年两大结构耦合度呈倒“U”型变化,由低水平耦合趋向拮抗并最终趋向协调;两大系统内指标关联度不一,其中劳动年龄人口比重与第二产业关联度较大,而城镇人口比重、老年人口比重、大专及以上文化人口比重与第三产业有较高关联;我国31省份人口结构与产业结构耦合度在空间分布上具有东中西分异规律,进一步结合经济社会发展指标,可分成协调型、磨合型、拮抗型和低水平协调型四种类型,大部分省份为磨合型和拮抗型,且呈现梯度分布与空间集聚特征。

This paper analyzed the coupling degree between population structure and industrial structure using the method of grey relational analysis. Empirical results show that the fluctuation of coupling degree between population and industrial structure shaped as invert ＂U＂ from 1990 to 2012. Population structure and industrial structure vary from low level of coupling degree to harmony. The correlation between population structure factors and industrial structure indexes differs. The proportion of population aged 15-64 has a high relational degree with the secondary industry .However, urbanization, aging and the proportion of high educated have relative high degree with the third industry. Thirty-one provinces＇ coupling between population structure atad industrial structure are different in the spatial distribution. With the combination with the thirty-one provinces＇ economic and social degree of, it can be divided into four types： harmony, amelioration, conflict and low level coupling. In general, amelioration and conflict predominates is dominant and have characteristics of gradient distribution and spatial agglomeration.