城镇燃气聚乙烯管道失效风险等级评定方法研究

Study on the Method of Failure Risk Assessment for Urban Gas Polyethylene Pipe

针对安全基础薄弱、泄漏事故频发的城镇燃气聚乙烯管道,区别于以往传统钢质管道,引入可拓理论,结合肯特评分法和层次分析法,在对聚乙烯管道风险等级进行初步定义的基础上,确定了第三方破坏、脆性开裂、蠕变失效、泄漏失效4个主要评价指标,建立了城镇燃气聚乙烯管道失效风险等级评定模型,确定了各风险评价指标的评分及其权重值的计算方法。为了证明所提出方法,通过一个简单的实例,对其失效风险等级进行定量计算,验证可拓理论在燃气聚乙烯管道失效风险评价中的可行性,结果表明所建指标较为合理,评价方法科学有效,评价结果可信,为城镇燃气聚乙烯管道失效风险等级评定提供了新思路。

Abstract：For the safety foundation is weak, frequent leakage accident of urban gas polyethylene pipe, difference from the traditional steel gas pipeline, introducing the extension theory, combined with Kent scoring method and analytic hierarchy process （ AHP）, on the preliminary definition of polyethylene pipe- line risk level, four main evaluation index third party damage , brittle cracking, creep failure, aging and leakage are determined, the failure risk assessment model of urban gas polyethylene pipe is established, the calculation method of the evaluation index and the corresponding weight value is determined. A simple example is used to demonstrate the proposed approach, quantitative calculation the failure risk level, feasi- bility of the extension theory in the failure risk assessment of gas polyethylene pipe, the results show that the proposed index is reasonable, scientific and effective of the evaluation method, the evaluation resultsare credible,it provides a new way for the failure risk assessment of urban gas pipeline.