渭干河-库车河绿洲土地生态安全物元分析评价

Ecological security evaluation of land based on the method of matter element analysis of Ugan-Kuqa River oasis

针对综合评价研究中存在信息不相容的问题,尝试采用物元分析法对渭干河-库车河绿洲(以下简称渭库绿洲)土地生态安全进行评价。通过构建土地生态安全的经济-环境-社会评价指标体系,建立土地生态安全评价的物元模型,揭示单个评价指标的分异信息和综合评价结果。结果表明,1)农民人均纯收入、耕地粮食单产、有效灌溉面积、土地垦殖率、农业机械总动力、城市化水平等指标出现不同等级的上升趋势,以上指标对土地生态安全水平的提升有重要贡献。但单位耕地化肥负荷、森林覆盖率、灾害指数、盐渍化程度、人口密度等指标的安全等级下降,而且盐渍化治理率和人口密度的安全状态均在较不安全等级以下,成为该绿洲土地生态安全的关键制约因素。2)1995—2010年,渭库绿洲土地生态水平等级经历了安全—较安全—安全—较安全的演变历程,但不完全符合安全与较安全的标准,水平等级不稳定。为了促进绿洲土地生态安全等级不断提升,需要转变经济发展方式,降低经济增长对土地资源的消耗,大力发展特色农业、节水农业,合理施用农药、化肥,加大环境治理力度,有效控制土壤盐渍化程度,以实现土地资源利用的可持续发展。

This paper attempts to make a comprehensive evaluation ecological security of the land of Ugan-Kuqa River oasis in Xinjiang through matter element analysis in light of the incompatible information.Having established an evaluation index system of economy,environment and society,this paper has established a matter element model of ecological security evaluation of the land in hoping to disclose the differentiation of a single index and the comprehensive evaluation results.The results of our evaluation have shown that（1） on the one hand,the indexes,such as the net income of per capita farmer,the yield of the cultivated grain land per unit,the effective irrigation area,the land reclamation rate,the total power of agricultural machinery and the level of urbanization,tend to reveal a rising trend of the varying degree,which contributes significandy to the improvement of the ecological security of the land of Ugan-Kuqa River oasis.On the other,in terms of the social security level,the indexes,such as the farmland fertilizer load per unit,the forest coverage,the disaster index,the soil salinization and the population density,have been found dropped.The soil salinization treatment and the population density can be said under the level of relative insecurity,which tends to be the key to restricting the ecological security level.（2） Ugan-Kuqa oasis has experienced a process of security-relative security-security again-relative security from 1995 to 2010 in the ecological security level,but now,for the time being unstable.Therefore,a continuous upgrading of the ecological security level in the oasis demands a sustainable development of the land resources by changing the economic development pattern to reduce the mindless land consumption by developing a featured,water-saving agriculture,with a reasonable application of the pesticides and chemical fertilizers with a purpose to strengthen the environmental treatment to control effectively the soil salinization.