2015-2016年中国经济形势分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation in 2015-2016

2015年年初以来，全球经济总体保持了温和复苏态势，但经济增速不及此前预期。2015年全球贸易增速处于国际金融危机以来的较低水平。预计2015年中国经济增长6．9％-7．1％，可以实现年初预期的7％左右的经济增长目标。预计2016年中国GDP增长6．6％～6．8％。2015--2016年中国经济增长将在新常态下运行在合理区间，就业、物价保持基本稳定，中国经济不会出现硬着陆，但2016年加大积极财政政策的实施力度十分必要。当前应把“稳增长、增效益”作为积极财政政策的重心，加强积极财政政策在扩大需求方面的直接作用。2016年应继续实施结构宽松的货币政策，推动有利于实体经济发展和结构调整的金融改革，防范系统性金融风险。

From the beginning of 2015, the global economy has been on the road of moderate recovery, but the pace is slower than the previous prediction. The global trade growth in 2015 has remained at a low level since the financial crisis. China＇s economy is projected to grow by 6.9-7.1 percent in 2015. The target ＂around 7 percent growth＂ estimated earlier this year can be achieved. The GDP is projected to grow by 6.6-6.8 percent in 2016. In 2015-2016, the Chinese economy will operate within an appropriate range under the ＂new normal＂ environment. With stable employment and price, China will not experience a ＂hard landing＂. It is necessary to intensify efforts to implement the proactive fiscal policy in 2016. We should give greater priority to ＂maintaining stable growth, increasing efficiency＂ at present, and strengthen the direct role of the proactive fiscal policy in the expansion of the demand. In 2016 we should continue to implement structural loose monetary policy, promote financial reform to better serve the real economy and the structural adjustments, and prevent systemic financial risks.