产能过剩与对外承包工程的产能输出作用研究

On the Overcapacity and the Capacity Export Action of Foreign Contracted Projects

在中国经济增速向下调整的背景下,产能过剩问题更加突出,这使得中国通过对外承包工程及其所带动的出口贸易、劳务输出、对外直接投资等形式向国外输出产能显得更加必要。本文通过构建包括产能过剩行业产能利用率、对外承包工程、其他产能输出变量和国内因素在内的回归模型,检验了对外承包工程对产能过剩行业产能利用率的提升作用。结果显示,对外承包工程对中国产能过剩行业提升产能利用率具有显著的促进作用。同时,国内的生产价格指数也对产能利用率具有正向影响。为此,中国应从政府、行业、企业层面,促进对外承包工程的发展,一方面可缓解国内产能过剩,另一方面可以促进中国相关行业和企业的产能优化升级,向全球价值链高端迈进。

Under the background of economic growth slowdown in China, the overcapacity problem becomes more prominent, which makes the capacity export more necessary through foreign contracted projects （FCP）, export trade, labor export, outward foreign direct investment and other forms. Based on the regression model including the capacity utilization of overcapacity industries, FCP, other capacity export variables and domestic factors, this paper test the FCP＇ promotion function of capacity utilization in overcapacity industries. Results show that the FCP has a significant positive influence on the improvement of capacity utilization in overcapacity industries in China. At the same time, domestic producer price index （PPI） also has a positive influence on the capacity utilization. Therefore, China should promote the development of FCP through the governments, industries and enterprises. On the one hand FCP can alleviate the overcapacity problem and on the other hand it can promote the optimization and upgrading the capacity of China＇s related industries and enterprises towards to the high-end of global value chain.