“新常态”下人力资本在中国经济增长的驱动效应分析

The Analysis of Human Capital in the Economic Growth of China in the Phase of “New Normal”

本文研究了"新常态"下,我国人口老龄化到来以及抚养比上升导致人口红利的消失,增大了经济的下行压力。在此基础上,通过从教育投入的发展、劳动力素质的提高等视角分析了中国人力资本红利形成的基础,中国已经可以从传统的依赖于人口红利的粗放发展方式,逐步转向依赖于人力资本的效率驱动、创新驱动发展模式。此外,本文采用中国248个城市的地市级数据,应用效率工资方法测算了不同规模城市之间人力资本的差异,结果显示,大城市人力资本丰裕的特征十分明显。人力资本在经济发展中的驱动作用逐渐增强,政府应加大教育和养老机制的改革来应对老龄化现象、提升人力资本。

This paper studies the decreasing of demographic dividend due to the rising of depenency ratio and the population aging in China, which also exert pressure on the economic growth in new normal. On this basis, with the analysis of China human capital dividends from the development of education input and the improvement of labor quality, China has the ability to transform the development patterns from the development patterns relied on demographic dividend in the past to efficiency driven and innovation driven pattern relied on human capital. Furthermore, this paper selects the city-level data of 248 Chinese cities, using the method of efficiency wage to measure the differences of the human capital among different scale cities. The results show that big cities marked characteristics of abundance human capital. With the driven role of human capital in economic development enhanced gradually, the government should strengthen the reform of education and pension mechanism to cope with the aging phenomenon, and then promote the accumulation of human capital.