2014年云台光电等高仪时纬残差异常与云南的3次强震

Anomalies of astronomical time-latitude residuals of photoelectric astrolabe of Yunnan Observatories with three strong earthquakes in Yunnan in 2014

2014年在云南省境内先后发生了3次6级以上地震,在这3次地震前中国科学院云南天文台光电等高仪的时间和纬度残差均出现了明显的同步异常,且仅有这3次异常.强烈地震前天文时间和纬度残差出现异常,这一现象是在1976年唐山地震以后,由中国科学院北京天文台的科研人员首先发现的,至今已经30多年了.通过30余年的研究实践表明,这一现象是真实的,而且它的物理机制也比较清楚,因为光学天体测量仪器是以地方铅垂线为基准进行观测的,地震前地下物质运动引起的铅垂线变化可能正是这种天文时间和纬度残差异常的原因.所以,本文的结果再一次证明,天文时间和纬度残差异常可以为台站周围强震的预测提供有用的警告信息,它可能是一种有效的地震前兆,值得重视和深入研究.

In 2014 in Yunnan Province occurred three strong earthquakes. The synchronous anomalies greater than 2σ appeared in RT and RL of the photoelectric astrolabe at Yunnan Observatories before the three earthquakes. Besides the three anomalies there were no other anomalies. Before the strong earthquake astronomical time and latitude residuals appearant anomalies,this phenomenon was first discovered by the researchers of Beijing Observatories of the Chinese Academy of Sciences after the Tangshan earthquake in 1976,which was found over 30 years ago. Over 30 years of research and practice for this anomalies shows that this phenomenon is real,and its physical mechanism is relatively clear. The optical astrometric instrument is based on local plumb line as a reference carry out observation. Before earthquake the plumb line changes caused by underground substance motion may be the reasons for this astronomical time and latitude residual anomaly. Therefore,the results reported herein,once again proves that anomalies of astronomical time and latitude residual can provide useful warning sign for strong earthquake prediction around the station. It may be an effective precursor,deserves attention and further study.