基于R/S和ESDA分析的黔中城市群县域经济差异研究

Research on County Economic Difference in Urban Agglomeration in Central Guizhou Based on R/S and ESDA

借助R/S分析、nich指数、ESDA模型,对2004-2012年黔中城市群县域经济差异进行评价,结论如下：县域经济绝对差异呈波动扩大态势,未来的整体变化将继续呈波动上升趋势,但持续性并不是很强;县域经济相对差异逐步缩小,未来的整体变化将继续呈下降态势,且持续性很强;县域经济发展速度呈现北快南慢的空间格局;经济发展水平相似的县域集聚分布,呈显著的空间正相关;落后县域的经济发展水平有了明显提高,但二元结构依然明显;经济发展水平空间格局由中心——外围模式演变为北高南低。在此基础上,进一步分析了黔中城市群县域经济差异的原因。

The paper studies on county economic difference in urban agglomeration in central Guizhou from 2004-2012 by means of R/S analysis, nich index and ESDA. It comes to the conclusions as follows： the absolutedifference of county economy presents fluctuating expansion trend, and the overall change in the future will con-tinue to be a fluctuating upward trend, but the persistence is not very strong; the relative difference of countyeconomy is gradually narrowed, and will continue to be narrowed in the future, and the persistence is verystrong; the development speed of county economy is imbalanced with the feature of south slower and north fast-er; the development level of county economy exits significantly positive correlation with the agglomeration; theeconomic development level of backward counties has increased significantly, but the dual structure of countydevelopment is still obvious; the spatial pattern of county economic development level is from the center-periph-ery model to south lower and north higher. Based on the above conclusions, the author further analyzes the mainreason for the differences of county economy.