全球性碳税政策作用下多国多部门经济增长与碳排放的全球治理

A Research of Multi-country-Multi-sector Economic Growth and Carbon Emission Governance under Global Carbon Taxes

碳税政策是减少碳排放,减缓全球气候变化的有力手段。本文着眼于国家/部门层面,对气候-经济集成评估模型CIECIA进行碳税方面的扩展,研究了全球性碳税和碳税收入分配模式对多国多部门的经济发展和碳排放变化的影响。研究结果显示,碳税政策对发展中国家的碳减排具有明显的促进作用,但对其经济会产生一定的损害;而发达国家则受碳税影响较小。四种国家间碳税收入分配方案中,在按人口数量分配碳税的平等原则下各国碳税净流入比较接近,对中国也较为有利;而人均碳排放原则没有考虑发展中国家未来的发展需求,因此对中国最为不利,而对低碳技术发达的发达国家反而有利。将碳税收入投资知识资本以促进过程技术进步的策略可以有效提高发展中国家的碳减排量,同时促进其经济发展;而发达国家则由于本身知识资本水平较高,以及得到的碳税收入较少等原因,对技术进步策略政策并不敏感。

This paper focuses on the national / sectoral levels and expends the climate-economic IAM named CIECIA in the aspect of carbon tax to have a research on the changes of the multi-country-sector economic growth and carbon emissions under different global carbon tax rates and tax revenue distribution modes. The results indicate that carbon tax policies have obvious promoting effects on the carbon abatements of the developing countries,whereas the carbon emission reductions of the developed countries are smaller because of their low abatement potentials caused by higher initial lowcarbon technologies,lower economic growth rates,etc. In the four international carbon tax revenue distribution modes,the net carbon tax revenue flows of countries are relatively equal under the equality principle based on the population,and this principle benefits China most. The carbon emission per capita principle ignores the development demands of developing countries and thus is harmful to China,whereas developed countries benefit under this principle. Investing carbon tax revenue to technological progress will significantly increase carbon reductions of developing countries,as well as their cumulative utilities. However,developed countries are insensitive to the technological progress strategy because of their higher initial capital knowledge levels,lower carbon tax returns,etc.