城市环境空气质量指数范围预报方法初探

Discussion on the Methods of Urban Ambient Air Quality Index Range Forecasting

城市环境空气质量指数预报是环境信息公众服务的重要内容,以城市24 h空气质量指数预报为例,探讨了其范围预报方法,并通过均方差的数理统计方法,分析典型城市每日空气质量指数实况数据的波动范围以及预报与实况偏差,针对不同空气质量级别提出建议性的空气质量指数预报变化幅度修正范围,并对预报过程中的质量控制技术进行了初步讨论。

Urban ambient air quality index forecasting information is an important content of environmental information services for public. Taking 24 h air quality index forecasting as an example,this study discussed the method of air quality index range forecasting and related quality control techniques. Based on Standard Deviation statistical analysis,this study analyzed the fluctuation range of daily actual air quality index of several typical cities and the deviation of forecasting air quality index and actual air quality index,this study proposed a set of variation ranges of air quality index forecasting for different air quality levels.